Karachi has experienced an unusually hot September, with temperatures reaching levels not seen in the city for nearly a decade. Weather experts say the heat has made this September the hottest in nine years, while warning that above-normal temperatures could continue into October.
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According to meteorologists, Karachi may experience warmer-than-usual conditions during the post-monsoon period, particularly toward the end of September and throughout October.
However, they caution that current weather indicators are not sufficient to predict whether the city will set another temperature record.
For October, Karachi’s highest recorded temperature is 43°C, which was registered in 1951. Temperatures have also exceeded 40°C in several recent years, including 2017, 2018, 2020 and 2023.
Despite the possibility of further heat, residents are not expected to face extreme temperatures immediately. Meteorologists forecast relatively normal conditions over the next five to seven days, with daytime temperatures generally remaining between 34°C and 36°C.
The period after the monsoon is known as the post-monsoon transition, during which Karachi can experience another spell of hot weather.
Late September and October are sometimes referred to as the city’s “second summer”, when temperatures can approach or exceed 40°C depending on prevailing weather conditions.
The monsoon season has ended in Karachi after bringing relatively limited rainfall this year and withdrawing earlier than usual.
Meteorologists say significant rainfall during the post-monsoon period generally requires the development of a strong weather system, such as a cyclonic circulation or tropical cyclone over the Arabian Sea. At present, no such system is visible that would suggest a major rainfall event for Karachi.
Meanwhile, longer-term weather patterns are being monitored for possible effects on the coming winter. Climate variability and El Niño-related influences could contribute to changes in seasonal temperatures and the duration of winter.
For now, Karachi is expected to experience relatively normal temperatures over the coming week. However, warmer conditions could return toward the end of September and during October.
While another heat record cannot be ruled out, meteorologists say it is still too early to make such a prediction.
