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Fitch Ratings – a global credit rating agency that provides credit ratings, Research, and Analysis for the global financial markets – has predicted that the Pakistani rupee will gradually depreciates in coming months to ease pressure on the current account as economic activity improves.
An international news agency quoted Fitch’s Asia Pacific Ratings Director, Krisjanis Krustins, stating that the rupee may fall to Rs285 per dollar by June, and Rs295 by mid-2026.
This suggests a 1.5 percent drop in two months and a 5 percent total depreciation by June 2026 from the current interbank rate of around Rs280.77 per dollar.
Fitch believes the State Bank of Pakistan (SBP) will permit this slow depreciation to help manage rising imports as the country’s economy gains pace.
According to SBP data, Pakistan posted a record $1.2 billion current account surplus in March 2025, reversing a $97 million deficit in February.
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The surplus lifted the total for July – March FY25 to $1.86 billion, a sharp turnaround from a $1.65 billion deficit in the same period last year.
Despite this improvement, SBP Governor Jameel Ahmad reported a $2 billion decline in forex reserves due to foreign debt repayments, reducing reserves to $10.6 billion.
However, he expects external inflows of $4-5 billion by June, projecting SBP reserves to rise to $14 billion, up from the earlier $13 billion forecast.
Ahmad also noted a $5.7 billion import figure for March, signaling a pick-up in trade and activity. He projected 3 percent GDP growth in FY25.
The IMF board is likely to approve a $1 billion loan tranche under the $7 billion program in late April or early May 2025.
