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Karachi, the largest city in Pakistan, faces an imminent threat from the impacts of global warming on glaciers, snow, and permafrost in the Hindu Kush Himalayan (HKH) region. A report released by the International Centre for Integrated Mountain Development (ICIMOD), representing eight nations, reveals that the effects of climate change on the region, including Pakistan, are unprecedented and largely irreversible.
According to the assessment, Pakistan’s glaciers are losing mass at an alarming rate, and those throughout the HKH region could witness a reduction of up to 80% in their present volume. Rising temperatures and changes in precipitation patterns contribute to this significant loss. The report highlights that glacier decline in the HKH region was 65% more rapid in the 2010s compared to the previous decade.
The consequences of glacial melt extend beyond reduced water availability. The region is expected to lose 30% to 50% of glacial ice by 2100 if the temperature rise remains at 1.5℃. Additionally, the report warns of an impending “peak water” scenario by mid-century, which will result in water shortages. These changes will also increase the risks of flooding and landslides.
In the case of Pakistan, the report projects uncertain increases in precipitation in the near future, leading to more intense rainfall events and potential shifts in the seasonal availability of rainfall. Simultaneously, rising sea levels pose a continuous threat to Pakistan’s coastline, including Karachi. The increased contribution of meltwater will result in greater vulnerability to flooding and erosion for coastal areas.
Philippus Wester, an environmental scientist and ICIMOD fellow who led the report, emphasized the urgency of the situation: “We’re losing the glaciers, and we’re losing them in 100 years’ time.” The Hindu Kush Himalaya stretches across eight countries, including Pakistan, and spans over 3,500 km (2,175 miles).
The report underscores that at 1.5℃ or 2℃ of warming above preindustrial temperatures, glaciers in the entire region could lose 30% to 50% of their volume by 2100. However, the extent of glacial melt will vary depending on the location. If the world continues on its current climate trajectory, the Eastern Himalaya, which encompasses Nepal and Bhutan, may experience ice loss of up to 75% at 3℃ of warming, escalating to 80% at 4℃ of warming.
Assessing the impacts of climate change in the Hindu Kush Himalaya has been challenging due to limited historical data on glacier changes. However, recent advancements in satellite technology and field efforts have enabled scientists to gain a better understanding of the region’s transformations. The report draws on data collected until December 2022, providing a more robust baseline for analysis.
The implications of these findings extend beyond environmental concerns and pose a significant threat to the livelihoods of those living in the Hindu Kush Himalaya. Water flows in the region’s 12 river basins, including the Ganges, Indus, and Mekong, are projected to peak around mid-century, affecting over 1.6 billion people who depend on these water sources. While the increased rate of glacial melt may initially seem beneficial, it is expected to result in irregular and flood-prone water supply rather than a consistent flow. As water supplies dwindle, communities relying on glacial water and snowmelt for irrigation face challenges due to erratic snowfall patterns and reduced snow accumulation.
Moreover, melting glaciers pose threats to downstream communities as runoff accumulates in shallow lakes, creating the risk of glacial lake outburst floods when these lakes overflow. Governments in the region, including China and Pakistan, are taking measures to address these challenges. China is working on securing its water supplies, while Pakistan is implementing early warning systems to mitigate the risks associated with glacial lake outburst floods.
The ICIMOD report serves as a stark reminder of the irreversible consequences of climate change on glaciers in the HKH region, emphasizing the urgent need for global action to mitigate the impacts and adapt to the changing realities. Failure to address these challenges could result in severe environmental, economic, and humanitarian consequences for the people of Pakistan and other countries in the region.
