In a study shared on Thursday to determine how much of the recent fatal floods in Pakistan was caused by global warming, human-induced climate change played a role.
An international group of climate scientists from the World Weather Attribution group reported that rainfall in the hardest-hit areas had increased by up to 75% recently and came to the conclusion that human activity had probably increased August precipitation levels in Sindh and Balochistan provinces to records-high levels.
Over 33 million people were impacted, 1.7 million dwellings were demolished, and over 1,400 people perished as a result of the water.
The scientists analysed weather data and computer simulations of the current climate to determine the likelihood of such an event occurring at the roughly 1.2 degrees Celsius of warming that human activity has caused since the Industrial era. This analysis helped them determine what role global warming played in the downpours.
They next compared that probability to models and facts from the previous climate, which was 1.2 degrees colder than the present one.
They discovered that climate change may have resulted in an up to 50% increase in the 5-day total rainfall for Sindh and Balochistan.
According to the research, given the climatic conditions we are now experiencing, there is a one percent probability that such an event will occur in any given year.
Climate change most certainly increased the likelihood of the heavy rainfall since the same occurrence would have been significantly less likely in a world without human-caused greenhouse gas emissions, the study stated.
However, the study’s authors emphasised that it was impossible to draw the conclusion that man-made warming considerably affected the 60-day total rainfall levels due to previous high changes in seasonal monsoon rainfall across Pakistan.
According to Friederike Otto, senior lecturer in climate science at Imperial College London’s Grantham Institute, "What we experienced in Pakistan is exactly what climatic forecasts have been expecting for years.”
Additionally, historical data indicate that since people began releasing significant amounts of greenhouse gases into the atmosphere, heavy rainfall has grown significantly in the area.
